[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 190/143


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: Solar regions 177 and 180 have the chance of producing 
M-class flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3233 2232
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           9   3222 2232
      Learmonth            7   2222 2222
      Canberra            10   3232 2232
      Hobart              12   3333 2232
      Casey(Ant)          19   4-44 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            86   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             108   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   4334 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods 
                at high latitudes. 
09 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parmeters indicate that present coronal hole 
effects are declining. There is the small chance of a glancing 
blow from weak CME activity observed during 7 November on 10 
November that may produce a slight increase in geomagnetic activity. 
Further coronal hole activity is expected to commence on 11 November. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should mostly normal to good for the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Nov   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Nov   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should mostly normal to good for the next 
few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 578 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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