[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 29 09:51:17 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 186/139

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            195/147            195/147
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 28May(UT day). Region 
9957(N12W86) produced a C3.6 flare at 1635UT/28May, besides a 
few more isolated C class flares. Three CMEs were observed 
respectively at 1342UT/27May, 2342UT/27May and 1642UT/28May. 
The first of these CME (1342/27May) was a front side CME 
predominantly from the NE limb and can have a weak glancing 
effect on the geomagnetic activity on 29/30May. The last CME 
(1642/28May) was a strong one but seems to be from behind 
the disk. The 2342UT/27May CME was directed to the north-east 
side and was a small CME. The 
solar wind slowed down from 800 to nearly 600km/s during the 
last 24 hours and is showing further decline in speed. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2322 2222
      Darwin               9   3322 2222
      Townsville           8   2322 2223
      Learmonth            8   2322 2132
      Canberra             8   2222 3222
      Hobart               5   2221 2212
      Casey(Ant)          13   3432 2232
      Davis(Ant)          15   ---- --34
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAY : 
      Darwin              46   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              57   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             28   3255 4533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May     7    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
30 May     7    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
31 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: A decline in the coronal hole activity is expected 
to keep the geomagnetic activity mostly at quiet to unsettled 
level on 29 and 30 May. However, a possible weak glancing 
effect of the CME (1342UT/27May) and an unsettled Bz may 
raise the geo-magnetic activity to active levels for short 
intervals of time on 29/30May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions remained mostly normal in low and 
mid-latitude regions with periods of MUF enhancements upto 20% 
on 28May(UT day). In high latitude regions MUFs remained close 
to or above the predicted monthly values for most of the time 
and also showed some periods of deppressions during the UT day 
of 28May. The coronal hole effect seems to be declining further. 
The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during 
the next three days with slight possibility of minor 
deppressions on 29/30 May due to the possible effect of a 
CME observed on 27May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
28 May   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods of
      depressions upto 30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May   132    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
30 May   132    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
31 May   135    5 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
29 and 30 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   366000 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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