[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 183/136

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1121 1222
      Darwin               4   2111 1222
      Townsville           4   1111 2223
      Learmonth            4   1121 1222
      Canberra             3   1011 1212
      Hobart               2   0011 1212
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1212
      Davis(Ant)           9   2232 23-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAY : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2112 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     6    Mostly quiet. 
28 May     5    Quiet 
29 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The effect of the coronal hole activity seems to be 
showing further decline. The solar wind speed kept fluctuating 
between 400 and 500 km/s during the last 24 hours. The current 
solar wind speed is approximately 440 km/s. Further decline in 
the solar wind speed is possible. Bz remained southwards for 
nearly 15 hours on 26May (UT day). Bz is showing fluctuations 
since 1800UT/26May(approx.) and is currently pointing southwards. 
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet 
level on 27 and 28 May (UT day). 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions remained mostly normal in low 
and mid-latitude regions with periods of MUF enhancements
upto 30% and brief periods of mild depressions on 26May 
(UT day). In high latitude regions MUFs remained close to 
predicted monthly values for most of the time and also showed 
enhancements upto approximately 35% and some periods of 
deppressions during the UT day of 26May. The coronal hole 
solar wind stream seems to be slowing down. The HF conditions 
are expected to remain normal during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
26 May   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with
      periods of enhancements upto 40% and depressions 
      upto 35%.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May   135    5 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
28 May   140    5 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
29 May   140    5 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
27 and 28 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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