[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 22 09:20:38 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    2141UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 186/139

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: A weak indistinct shock was observed at 21UT with solar 
wind speed jumping from 350-400km/sec. Shock signature was very 
weak in ACE solar wind density channel and was not auto detected. 
A second speed jump was observed around 22UT with speed increasing 
to 475 km/sec. However, wind speed then rapidly dropped to 420km/sec 
shortly after this second jump. This weak signature is considered 
to be a glancing blow from the westward directed mass jection 
observed around 22UT on 19 May. A strong Type II radio sweep 
(speed 500km/sec) was observed on the Culgoora spectrograph at 
2128UT on 21 May. This event was associated with the M1.5 flare 
with appears to have a slow xray decline. Latest (2226UT) LASCO 
C2 imagery shows a predominately eastward directed semi-halo 
mass ejection. Event data suggests a glancing blow shock arrival 
window 24/11UT to 25/05UT. The origin of the flare in Culgoora 
H-Alpha imagery suggests region 9960. The flare in H-alpha was 
a large parallel ribbon event peaking in area at around 2150UT. 
Even though this region is located at N14E35 a proton event is 
quiet possible over the next 24 hours. There are now three solar 
regions that have very good flare potential 9957, 9960, and 9961. 
In addition, a large isolated coronal hole now spans the equator, 
in the middle of the solar disk and the high speed stream is 
expected to also impact the earth 24-25 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3132 1013
      Darwin               7   3231 1123
      Townsville           7   3132 1123
      Learmonth            6   3132 1013
      Canberra             5   2132 1013
      Hobart               5   2132 1013
      Casey(Ant)           8   3232 20--
      Davis(Ant)           8   -242 2001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAY : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   1323 3433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
23 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
24 May    18    initially quiet, active to minor storm periods 
                late in UT day. 
COMMENT: A very small (5nT) impulse like feature observed in 
magnetograms at 2203UT. Minor storm periods are expected predominately 
late 24 May to 25 May due to a combination of a glancing blow 
from the mass ejection and coronal hole high speed stream effects. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event. However, a proton event is expected
over the next 24 hours due to parallel ribbon flare in region 9960.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected late 24-25 May, mid to high 
latitudes, in association with anticipated geomagnetic activity 
from CME/corona hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 May   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
23 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
24 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 20 May 
and is current for interval 21-23 May (SWFs) . Mild degradation 
in HF conditions expected late 24/25 May southern region Aus/NZ 
only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    98900 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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