[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 22 09:20:38 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 2141UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 186/139
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: A weak indistinct shock was observed at 21UT with solar
wind speed jumping from 350-400km/sec. Shock signature was very
weak in ACE solar wind density channel and was not auto detected.
A second speed jump was observed around 22UT with speed increasing
to 475 km/sec. However, wind speed then rapidly dropped to 420km/sec
shortly after this second jump. This weak signature is considered
to be a glancing blow from the westward directed mass jection
observed around 22UT on 19 May. A strong Type II radio sweep
(speed 500km/sec) was observed on the Culgoora spectrograph at
2128UT on 21 May. This event was associated with the M1.5 flare
with appears to have a slow xray decline. Latest (2226UT) LASCO
C2 imagery shows a predominately eastward directed semi-halo
mass ejection. Event data suggests a glancing blow shock arrival
window 24/11UT to 25/05UT. The origin of the flare in Culgoora
H-Alpha imagery suggests region 9960. The flare in H-alpha was
a large parallel ribbon event peaking in area at around 2150UT.
Even though this region is located at N14E35 a proton event is
quiet possible over the next 24 hours. There are now three solar
regions that have very good flare potential 9957, 9960, and 9961.
In addition, a large isolated coronal hole now spans the equator,
in the middle of the solar disk and the high speed stream is
expected to also impact the earth 24-25 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 6 3132 1013
Darwin 7 3231 1123
Townsville 7 3132 1123
Learmonth 6 3132 1013
Canberra 5 2132 1013
Hobart 5 2132 1013
Casey(Ant) 8 3232 20--
Davis(Ant) 8 -242 2001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAY :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 1323 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
23 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
24 May 18 initially quiet, active to minor storm periods
late in UT day.
COMMENT: A very small (5nT) impulse like feature observed in
magnetograms at 2203UT. Minor storm periods are expected predominately
late 24 May to 25 May due to a combination of a glancing blow
from the mass ejection and coronal hole high speed stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event. However, a proton event is expected
over the next 24 hours due to parallel ribbon flare in region 9960.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 May Normal Normal-Fair Normal-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected late 24-25 May, mid to high
latitudes, in association with anticipated geomagnetic activity
from CME/corona hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
21 May 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 20 May
and is current for interval 21-23 May (SWFs) . Mild degradation
in HF conditions expected late 24/25 May southern region Aus/NZ
only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 98900 K Bz: -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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