[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 183/136

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3332 3313
      Darwin              12   3332 3324
      Townsville          11   3232 3312
      Learmonth           11   3232 3313
      Canberra            14   3242 4313
      Hobart              14   3242 4313
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 2313
      Davis(Ant)          17   3444 231-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             40   2136 6654     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
14 May    20    Quiet to unsettled with possible active and minor 
                storm periods. 
15 May    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Minor storm periods are possible for 14 May as the result 
of the M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 14-15 
May following the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with 
the M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 May   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
14 May   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 May   135    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 14-15 
May following the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with 
the M1-flare observed at 1134UT on 11 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    9.7 p/cc  Temp:    72500 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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