[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Low to moderate

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 170/124

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119
COMMENT: Several C-class flares were observed. Region 9876 has 
been the most active region and it is growing in size and spot 
number. It produced long duration C1.1 (0149UT), C3.2 (0330UT), 
C3.5 (1436UT) and C2.6 (1918UT). Weak shock arrived in response 
to the CME observed on 21 March. Another minor shock may arrive 
in the late hours of 24 March or early hours of 25 March in response 
to the CME observed on 22 March. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1053UT 
on 23 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   1123 3334
      Learmonth           11   1014 3334
      Canberra            11   1024 3334
      Hobart               9   0023 3334
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          13   2232 3435
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2333 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. May reach isolated 
                active levels in response to a CME, possibly 
                from region 9870 near the south-western limb, 
                observed on 22 March. 
25 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Mar     6    Mostly quiet. May reach isolated unsettled levels. 
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed at 1053 in response to the 
CME observed on 21 March. Another shock may arrive on 24 March(late 
hours) or 25 March(early hours) in response to the CME observed on 
22 March. It may have minor effect on the geomagnetic activity 
on 24 March(late hours) and 25 March(early hours). 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1136UT on 23 Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 2330UT 22/03, Ended at 0115UT 23/03
 and, Began at 1320UT 23/03, Ended at 1450UT 23/03
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The CME observed on 22 March and the currently going 
on relatively high proton flux may cause minor deppressions in 
MUFs on 24 and 25 March on high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
23 Mar   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
5 to 40% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar   165    near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar   170    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Mar   175    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    66300 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060