[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    2323UT  Confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 176/130

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable       
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124
COMMENT: Solar region of interest 9866 showed some decline in 
area overnight, but has retained its magnetic complexity. This 
region produced the M2.1 event, associated with a possible moderate 
strength type II and IV radio sweep, observed on the Culgoora 
Spectrograph. The interpretation of radio sweep signature was 
difficult. If this interpretation is correct, a mass ejection 
may have occured in association with the slow rise flare. This 
inference will need to be confirmed by viewing LASCO imagery. 
9866 is now more or less in the middle if the solar disk, a good 
geoeffective location. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1827UT 
on 15 Mar, probably a glancing blow from recent CME activity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 0123
      Darwin               4   1121 0133
      Learmonth            3   1221 0024
      Canberra             4   0121 0132
      Hobart               3   0121 0122
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 1013
      Davis(Ant)           7   1332 0123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAR : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     7    Quiet 
17 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Mar    16    active 
COMMENT: Chance of possible CME effects on 18 Mar. Preliminary
forecast, this will be confirmed by viewing LASCO imagery as 
it becomes available. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Mar   171

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Mar   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Mar   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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