[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 183/136

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: A CME observed at approximately 22UT on 2 March does 
not appear to be associated with any event on the frontside of 
the sun. It is therefore assumed to be a backside event and 
therefore not geoeffective. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2333 2224
      Darwin               8   2223 2225
      Learmonth            7   2222 2223
      Canberra             8   1223 2324
      Hobart               9   1233 2324
      Casey(Ant)          15   3443 3123
      Davis(Ant)          15   33-4 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 1332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
05 Mar    18    Unsettled with possible active periods. 
06 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
COMMENT: Active periods are possible for 4-6 March due to an 
anticipated high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 4-5 March as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 Mar   176

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Enhanced to near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 110

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar   140    Enhanced 5-15% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
05 Mar   135    Enhanced 5-15% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
06 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible at times 
for 4-5 March as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    61300 K  Bz:   7 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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