[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 146/100

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2332 1223
      Darwin               9   3332 1223
      Townsville           8   3322 1223
      Learmonth            9   2333 1222
      Canberra             8   2332 1223
      Hobart               7   2322 2212
      Casey(Ant)          11   2433 1222
      Davis(Ant)          13   3333 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   2013 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
21 Jun    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
22 Jun    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: The coronal hole activity seems to have raised the solar 
wind speed from 350km/s to 550km/s (approx.) on 19 June. Bz remained 
mostly southwards on 19 June. The coronal hole activity is expected 
to continue to affect the geo-magnetic activity on 20 June and 
then gradually slow down. The geo- magnetic activity is expected 
to remain from quiet to unsettled level for most of the time 
on 20 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity due to the presence of a coronal 
hole may cause slight degradations in HF conditions at times. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 Jun   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun   105    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                15%. 
21 Jun   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Jun   112    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed at times due to geomagnetic 
activity expected due to the presence of the coronal hole. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    59900 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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