[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 137/91

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1332 2112
      Darwin               8   2332 2122
      Townsville           7   1332 2112
      Learmonth            7   1332 2112
      Canberra             6   2231 2111
      Hobart               4   1221 2111
      Casey(Ant)           6   2321 20--
      Davis(Ant)           8   1332 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUN : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2112 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the presence of a weak 
coronal hole solar wind stream over the past 18 hours. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for 
the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
18 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
19 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed over the next few days 
due to relatively low solar flux levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Jun   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs may be slightly depressed over the next few days 
due to relatively low solar flux levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060