[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 142/96

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             155/109
COMMENT: Type II sweep observed at 0045UT on 12 June. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3212 2122
      Darwin               5   2212 2122
      Townsville           3   2111 210-
      Learmonth            7   3112 2221
      Canberra             4   2101 2122
      Hobart               4   2101 2121
      Casey(Ant)           9   3322 22--
      Davis(Ant)          11   4322 2132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUN : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Type II sweep observed at 0045UT on 12 June is not expected 
to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 Jun   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun   115    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    58100 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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