[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1555UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 208/159


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            215/165
COMMENT: Not much activity over past 24 hours from regions of 
interest, however, ondisk regions 36 and 29 remain flare capable. 
Also, looks like solar region 30 (now disk departed) was active 
behind the north-west limb. This region is due back on 05 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2122
      Darwin               7   2322 2123
      Townsville           5   1222 2113
      Learmonth            4   2221 1021
      Canberra             4   2222 1012
      Hobart               3   1221 1011
      Casey(Ant)           7   2321 2122
      Davis(Ant)           9   2332 222-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   4333 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul    40    Initially unsettled, then minor storm. 
26 Jul    20    active 
27 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 24 July and 
is current for interval 25-26 July. Minor and possible major 
storm levels later on 25 Jul due to recent CME activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 07 2002 0715UT 
	    and is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor(PCA)
26 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits 
due to active solar regions. Absorption observed at high latitudes 
past 24 hours. Proton flux easing, now just above event threshold. 
Degarded conditions expected later on 25 July due to recent CME 
activity. Depressed MUFs likley on 26 July, northern hemisphere. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul    90    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 24 July 
and is current for interval 25-26 July. Degarded HF condiions 
expected to begin next 24 hours due to anticipated geomagnetic 
storm onset. Degradations expected to be strongest during local 
night hours. Only mild depressions after local dawn on 26th are 
expected in Aus/NZ region due to seasonal factors. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    90600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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