[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X3/-- 20/2130UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            185/138



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3342 3333
      Darwin              13   3332 3332
      Townsville          17   3342 4332
      Learmonth           13   3332 3332
      Canberra            15   3341 3332
      Hobart              13   3341 3233
      Casey(Ant)          13   3332 3333
      Davis(Ant)          22   4-43 43-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUL : 
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra           104   (Major storm)
      Hobart              91   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18   4432 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul    15    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
23 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
24 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity does not appear to be earthward 
directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 07 2002 1145UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible for high latitudes due 
to absorbtion from PCA event. Shortwave fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits due to active solar region rotating onto 
solar disk. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with some absorbtion
      at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
23 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
24 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible for high latitudes due 
to absorbtion from PCA event. Shortwave fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits due to active solar region rotating onto 
solar disk. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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