[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 20 09:11:02 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 182/135
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: It appears that three shock signatures were observed
overnight. The first around 0930UT (solar wind speed 450-530km/sec),
the second (and most distinct) around 1440UT (solar wind speed 500-
600km/sec, and the third around 16UT (solar wind 600-900km/sec).
The third shock was unusual as solar wind density rapidly decreased
on shock onset. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mostly northward for the first two shocks, becoming
southward 10nT post the third shock like feature. Solar regions
30 and 36 still have good flare potential. Also, it appears that
old region 17 is returning to the south-east limb of the sun.
This region is expected to be active as it rotates onto disk
due to recent south-west directed CMEs visible from behind the
limb, presumed from this region.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 1113 2322
Darwin 7 1113 2322
Townsville 7 1103 2323
Learmonth 7 1103 2322
Canberra 5 0103 2213
Hobart 4 1102 2212
Casey(Ant) 10 2222 3333
Davis(Ant) 11 2114 2332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 3323 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 25 Initially quiet to unsettled with storm levels
expected later in the UT day.
21 Jul 35 Active to minor storm.
22 Jul 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 19 July and
is current for interval 20-21 July. If the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field remains southward, increased
geomagnetic activity is likely over the next 24 hours. Another
impulse is expected today from the recent X1/cme.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 07 2002 1145UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
21 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected. Depressed MUFs likely
for northern hemisphere due to seasonal factors (summer), and
if current southward IMF persists.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
19 Jul 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 90 Depressed 10-20%/near predicted monthly values.
21 Jul 100 about 10% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 19 July
and is current for interval 20-21 July. Depressed MUFs expected
after local dawn, and degarded local night conditions expected
for southern Aus/NZ region due to anticpated increase in geomagnetic
activity from recent mass ejection events. Muf depression response
to activity expected to be reduced due to seasonal factors (winter).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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