[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0921UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 131/85

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: A gradually increasing flux trend on ACE EPAM precursor 
data channel suggests a weak shock is enroute to the earth, possibly 
arriving middle of 9 July. However, futher LASCO imagery shows 
that the CME from yesterdays filament eruption did not expand 
greatly as it left the sun, staying in a realtively narrow north-west 
stream. This is expected to reduce geoeffectiveness of this event. 
Todays M1 was an impulsive event. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2212 2113
      Darwin               5   2212 2113
      Townsville           4   1212 2112
      Learmonth            4   1212 2113
      Canberra             4   1212 2113
      Hobart               4   1202 2113
      Casey(Ant)           9   3322 3113
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 312-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3332 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul    16    initially unsettled, active second half UT day. 
10 Jul    12    mostly unsettled, chance active periods early 
                in UT day. 
11 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 8 July and 
is current for interval 9 July only. Mild disturbance now expected 
second half 09 July. Geomagnetic forecast reduced after viewing 
later LASCO imagery of filament eruption. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 1820UT 07/07, Ended at 0435UT 08/07
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mildy degraded conditions expected late 09 July. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
08 Jul   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildy degraded conditions expected local night hours 
southern Aus/NZ region 09 July. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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