[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 248/198

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   250/200            255/205            260/210
COMMENT: Solar region 9800 in the north-east quadrant of the 
solar disk remains of interest, continuing to develop, although 
has yet to produce M class activity. The north-south component 
of the IMF was northward for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed 
nominal. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3322 2222
      Darwin               7   3221 1223
      Learmonth            6   3212 1212
      Canberra             5   2222 2112
      Hobart               7   2322 2112
      Casey(Ant)          27   44-- ----
      Davis(Ant)          19   44-- 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan     7    Quiet 
29 Jan     7    Quiet 
30 Jan     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: 10MeV Proton flux enhancement increased after 13UT, 
to 9 particle flux units, just below event threshold, at 1710 
UT. Particle flux now declining, currently at 2pfu. Improved 
HF conditions expected today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
27 Jan   146

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed late in UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
29 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
30 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:   5 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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