[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 235/185

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            245/195            250/200
COMMENT: Two new regions have rotated around the south and north 
east limb of the Sun. The region to the north of these two new 
regions may become more interesting over the next few days. Solar 
wind speed ramped up after 13UT from 340km/sec to around 420km/sec 
near the end of the UT day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, was southward by 10nT between 
16-18 UT. Bz is now 10nT northward. Speculation:there may be 
indistinct, very weak, shock signatures around 1030 and 1300UT 
in solar wind data. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   1223 3443
      Darwin               8   1112 3334
      Learmonth            9   2112 3333
      Canberra            12   0122 3444
      Hobart              12   1122 3443
      Casey(Ant)          15   23-4 3333
      Davis(Ant)          19   23-4 3443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1200 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jan    11    Unsettled 
28 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Brief unexpected active periods observed late in UT 
day, in association with southward Bz. As Bz is now quite 
northward no further magnetic activity expected. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event, weak 10MeV flux enhancement in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Unexpected degradation in HF conditions observed at 
mid to high latitudes late in UT day. Also, 10MEv flux levels 
show a mild increase in second half of UT day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
25 Jan   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Mildly depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan   140    depressed 10-15%/enhanced 10-15% 
27 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern region MUFs mildly depressed after local dawn. 
DEpression not expected to persist due to mildness/brevity of 
overnight geomagnetic activity. Northern region MUFs expected 
to be near to 15% above normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    60400 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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