[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0900UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 229/179

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            235/185            235/185

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 1112
      Darwin               4   1222 1112
      Learmonth            4   1212 1111
      Canberra             4   2222 1012
      Hobart               4   1222 1112
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--4 3312
      Davis(Ant)           7   30-- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3223 3232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
22 Jan   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
24 Jan   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Jan   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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