[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 222/172

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            235/185            240/189

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3323 2234
      Darwin               9   4222 2224
      Learmonth            9   3222 2233
      Canberra            10   3322 2233
      Hobart               9   3322 1323
      Casey(Ant)          18   44-4 2234
      Davis(Ant)          19   3444 2334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JAN : 
      Darwin              44   (Unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra           119   (Major storm)
      Hobart             158   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   1122 4433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
20 Jan   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Jan   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
23 Jan   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:   11.9 p/cc  Temp:    68400 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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