[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 13 10:18:12 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0322UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1/1N 1519UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1/SF 1929UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3/-- 1843UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 233/183
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 240/189 240/189
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is gradually declining, falling from
600 to 500 km/sec over the UT day. No Type II or IV radio sweeps
were observed with todays flare activity, indicating that the
vents were not CME associated. M3 event associated with an erupting
prominanace (solar filament) on the west limb. Solar region 9773
remains magnetically complex and further M class, possibly X
class flare activity probable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 3323 3333
Darwin 10 2323 2323
Learmonth 12 3323 2332
Canberra 12 3333 2322
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Davis(Ant) 24 44-- 4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JAN :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 81 (Minor storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 4444 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 7 January and
is current for interval 11-13 January. Active conditions expected
on first day of forecast period due to coronal hole, then activity
is expected to decline..
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 01 2002 2055UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms degraded due to PCA. Proton flux
is slowly declining declining, expected to end today. Mildly
increased geomagnetic activity expected to degrade night-time
HF comms at mid to high latitudes today. Conditions are then
expected to improve.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
12 Jan 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 120 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 150 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Jan 160 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief depressions may be experienced after local dawn
this morning southern region Aus/NZ following mild overnight
geomagnetic activity. Northern region MUFs near to above normal.
HF conditions are expected to gradually improve over coming days,
with a likely return to enhanced MUFs on day 2, as coronal hole
induced geomagnetic activity declines.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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