[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 11 10:14:30 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 225/175
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 235/185 240/189
COMMENT: Solar wind data shows that the earth has gradually entered
a high speed wind stream. Superimposed on this was an indistinct
shock at around 1545UT 10 Jan. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic fiedl, Bz, fluctuated southward by up
to 20nT post shock. Speculatively, this discontinuity may have
originated from a glancing blow from limb based CME events on
08 Jan. Solar wind speed is currently at around 600km/sec, and
Bz is mildy northward. A proton event began 2135UT 10 Jan, and
is in progress. The origin of these protons is unclear as this
event had a gradual ramp increase in flux, rather than a jump
in flux, suggesting a non-usual/non-direct path of delivery.
Solar region 9773 did not produce M class flare activity over
past 24 hours, however, this region still has good flare potential.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9742 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 11 Jan. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 9748 is also due for return to the south-east
limb around this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 26 2333 4644
Darwin 23 2323 4635
Learmonth 23 2323 3643
Canberra 22 2333 4544
Hobart 20 2333 3543
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Davis(Ant) 39 35-- 4644
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JAN :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1220
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 18 active
12 Jan 16 active
13 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 7 January and
is current for interval 11-13 January. One isolated major storm
period observed overnight. This brief activity was not expected.
Active conditions expected due to coronal hole.
A weak (44nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1619UT on 10 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 01 2002 2055UT and is
in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Poor(PCA)
12 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms have become degraded since around
11UT, due to increased geomagnetic activity (CME) and increased
solar proton flux, causing increased absorption. High latitude
HF comms expected to be very degraded for today due to onset
of proton event and continued geomagnetic activity from coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
10 Jan 169
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 125 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 135 near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 135 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 9 January
and is current for interval 10-12 January (SWFs) . Unexpected
bief geomagnetic activity overnight may cause depressed MUFs
after local dawn this morning particulalrly southern region Aus/NZ.
Southern region MUFs in general are expected to come down (from
recently enhanced levels) over the next few days in association
with increased coronal hole sourced geomagnetic activity over
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 63600 K Bz: -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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