[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M9/2B    1801UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/1F    1113UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 229/179

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            235/185            240/189
COMMENT: M9.1 flare at 1742UT 9 Jan from region 9773 N13W03. 
No LASCO imagery currently available to determine if event was 
CME associated. Spectrograph data (lack of II and IV sweeps) 
suggests there was no CME. USA Big Bear Solar Observatory has 
reported that region 9773 has become magnetically complex. Further 
flares probable. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9742 is 
due for return to the north-east limb around 11 Jan. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 2212
      Darwin               4   1211 1212
      Learmonth            3   1211 1201
      Canberra             3   0110 1223
      Hobart               4   1211 1212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-33 22--
      Davis(Ant)          11   2323 3321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2132 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
11 Jan    18    active 
12 Jan    16    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 7 January and 
is current for interval 11-13 January. Active conditions forecast 
due to coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
09 Jan   188

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
11 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
12 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Mild degradation 
expected local night hours southern Aus/Nz region 11-13 Jan. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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