[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 189/142

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            200/152
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz, fluctuated southward by 10nT 11-16UT, then returned 
mildly northward for rest of UT day. A large south polar coronal 
hole is now moving into geoeffective position. This hole has 
had a weak geomagnetic signature on previous rotations. However, 
if Bz fluctuates southward again over the next few days an increase 
in activity may occur on this rotation. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1223 2333
      Darwin               8   1212 2333
      Learmonth            9   2222 2333
      Canberra             8   1222 2333
      Hobart               8   1222 2333
      Casey(Ant)          13   ---3 3233
      Davis(Ant)          17   24-4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan     5    Quiet 
09 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Active periods likely 11-13 Jan due to coronal hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes 11-13 Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
07 Jan   172

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
10 Jan   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Mild degradation 
expected local night hours southern Aus/Nz region 11-13 Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    19400 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060