[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1749UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 218/168

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            210/161            210/161
COMMENT: Solar xray flux shows an increasing background trend 
over past 12hrs, this may indicate that M class flare activity 
is becoming more likely today. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2122
      Darwin               3   1111 1023
      Learmonth            3   2111 1111
      Canberra             2   1111 1011
      Hobart               3   1111 1110
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2122
      Davis(Ant)          12   333- 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              3   1111 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     3    Quiet 
06 Jan    12    Unsettled, chance of active periods local first 
                half of UT day. 
07 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is generally expected to be quiet. 
Chance of brief active periods on 06 Jan from recent Type II 
on 03 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and 
is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal   
06 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Long running 10MeV proton event just beginning to drop 
below event threshold at time of issue of this report. Chance 
for mild degradation at high latitudes on 06 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Jan   169

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
07 Jan   170    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Mild degradation 
expected local night hours southern Aus/Nz region 06 Jan. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    76100 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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