[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 18/2115UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 189/142

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            205/156
COMMENT: Solar region of interest in the south-east quadrant 
of the solar disk (SEC 9830) has continued to grow, and Big Bear 
Solar observatory in the US reports that the region now has two 
highly complex magnetic areas. M class flare activity now expected, 
with chance of X class flare activity. This region is currently 
located at S18E11 on the solar disk. If a significant flare/CME 
event is produced by this region over the next few days it would 
probably be geoeffective, due to region location and seasonal 
factors. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   4322 1123
      Darwin               5   3211 1123
      Learmonth           11   5-11 1122
      Canberra             6   3221 1123
      Hobart               7   3231 0123
      Casey(Ant)          14   44-3 2123
      Davis(Ant)          10   33-3 1223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 FEB : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1222 1334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     4    Quiet 
21 Feb     4    Quiet 
22 Feb     7    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event. 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 Feb   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb   160    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
21 Feb   170    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Feb   170    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    60700 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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