[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 194/146

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143
COMMENT:A possible very weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0751UT 
on 16 Feb. Solar wind speed quickly returned to pre-shock levels 
following the very weak shock. There is a chance for futher weak 
shocks over next 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2211
      Darwin               4   1111 2210
      Learmonth            4   1111 2211
      Canberra             1   010- ----
      Hobart               3   1111 2201
      Casey(Ant)           9   23-3 320-
      Davis(Ant)           9   --31 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    16    active 
18 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Further weak shocks may be experienced today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation in HF conditions at high latitides 
for today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Feb   188

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb   175    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
18 Feb   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Feb   170    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 14 February 
and is current for interval 15-17 February. MUFs enhanced after 
local dawn this morning. Mild depressions not observed over night. 
Enhanced conditions now generally expected. This forecast will 
be revised back to a mild depression forecast if any shock induced 
geomagnetic activity comences over the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    50100 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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