[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 204/155

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156
COMMENT: A full halo coronal mass ejection has been reported 
from 1506UT on 12 Feb to 0242UT on 13 Feb. The mass ejection 
appeared to be related to C class flare activity from solar region 
9825, currently in the north east quadrant of the solar disk. 
The mass ejection was biased eastward, reducing geoeffectiveness. 
Event data suggests a weak shock arrival window from 14UT on 
15 Feb to 8UT on 16 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3233 3312
      Darwin               9   2233 2313
      Learmonth           11   3223 3311
      Canberra            10   2223 3322
      Hobart               9   2223 3312
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--4 3312
      Davis(Ant)          19   3442 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 FEB : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3221 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb     6    Quiet 
15 Feb    12    Initially quiet, becoming active second half 
                of UT day. 
16 Feb    16    Initially active, then declining to unsettled 
                during second half UT day. 
COMMENT: Active periods expected late 15-16 Feb due to partially 
earth directed CME. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
15/16 Feb due to recent partial earth-directed CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Feb   168

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb   170    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
15 Feb   150    enhanced 10-15%/depressed 10-15% late in UT day 
16 Feb   100    initially depressed 10-15% then returning to 
                near normal. 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today. Mild degradation 
expected ove interval 15-16 Feb southern region Aus/NZ. Equatorial 
region/Northern Aus. expected to remain near to 15% above normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   172000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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