[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    1848UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 217/167

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Feb             12 Feb             13 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            225/175            225/175



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3233 2122
      Darwin               5   2222 2113
      Learmonth            5   2222 2113
      Canberra             7   2232 2122
      Hobart               7   2232 2122
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 0---
      Davis(Ant)          14   34-3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 FEB : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2323 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Feb     6    Quiet 
13 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 Feb   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Feb   145    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    73100 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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