[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 114/65

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 30 December(UT day).
A few B-class flares were observed, the largest event being 
a B2.7 at 0354UT. The coronal hole effect has further 
declined.  The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 
550 km/s to 480 km/s (approx) during the UT day 30 December. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field remained mildly southwards for most of the UT day. 
The solar activity is expected to remain low to very low 
during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2232 2222
      Darwin               8   2232 2223
      Townsville           6   2132 1212
      Learmonth            6   2122 2222
      Canberra             8   2232 2222
      Hobart               7   2232 2212
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--4 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec    11    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
01 Jan     9    Mostly quiet. 
02 Jan     7    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic disturbance resulting from the
present high speed coronal hole wind stream has further 
declined. The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at 'quiet to unsettled' levels during the next 
one day with possibility of further decline to 'quiet'
level after that. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations during the next three days as the 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance subsides. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Dec    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with
      short periods of depressions and degradations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with short periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec   112    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   114    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 Jan   116    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in the Australian/NZ region during the next 3 days 
as the coronal hole solar wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity is expected to further decline during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 599 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  
Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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