[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: Region 224 produced two C5 level flares. This region 
is now located close to the west limb. A minor shock in the solar 
wind was observed shortly after 13UT. Solar wind speed stepped 
from 480 to 520 km/s, and the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained moderately southward for a number of 
hours. This shock was probably associated with the recent M1/CME 
event. Probability of M-class activity today is low. Coronal 
hole effects are expected around Dec 27. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3223 4433
      Darwin              16   3223 4433
      Townsville          13   2223 4424
      Learmonth           18   3123 5433
      Canberra            14   2233 4333
      Hobart              11   2233 3323
      Casey(Ant)          27   4--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             26   3345 5343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec    12    Unsettled 
26 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Minor transient disturbance was observed following a 
weak shock in the solar wind after 13UT. Unsettled to active 
conditions expected after 27-Dec due to geoeffective positioning 
of a large equatorial coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Poor-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed first half of the UT 
day at mid latitudes following overnight geomagnetic activity. 
Degraded conditions anticipated on 27-28Dec due to coronal hole 
induced geomagnetic activty. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Dec   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% first half of the UT day in S. Aus
      region.
      Remainder near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Dec   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Aus/NZ regional MUFs recovering today from degradation 
caused by recent geomagnetic activity. Coronal hole induced effects 
anticipated around 27-Dec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:  -7 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060