[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 22 09:09:41 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 184/137


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decline from 550 to 400km/sec as the 
Earth left the coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was moderately southward 
(10nT) 00-03UT, then briefly swung northward, before becoming 
neutral. A shock is expected in the solar wind later today, this 
may be followed by a weaker shock on 23 Dec. Solar region 226 
(south-west quadrant) and 230 (southeast quadrant) have M class 
flare potential. Solar regions 223 and 225 are showing decay. 
Another coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere 
in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. This is an isolated equatorial coronal 
hole. Its equatorial location means it will probably be geoeffective, 
but is not yet at geoeffective longitude. The appearance of coronal 
holes on the Sun has increased in recent months and is generally 
considered a feature of the declining phase of a solar cycle. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
21/1245UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   4632 3321
      Darwin              18   4532 3222
      Townsville          17   3532 3321
      Learmonth           22   5532 3321
      Canberra            23   4632 3321
      Hobart              23   4632 3321
      Casey(Ant)          25   3653 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 DEC : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   3423 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec    50    Minor to major storm expected later today. 
23 Dec    25    Active to minor storm. 
24 Dec    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 20 December 
and is current for interval 21-22 December. Isolated major storm 
period observed early in UT in association with southward Bz. 
Field then beacame quiet. Activity believed associated with exit 
from coronal hole wind stream. Further storm activity is expected 
later today and possibly tomorrow due to recent coronal mass 
ejection activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Normal-poor   
23 Dec      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor-fair     
24 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at mid to high latitudes 
early in UT day. Conditions expected to be initially good today 
then deteriorating. A stronger degradation is likely on 22-23 
Dec due to recent mass ejection activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   120    Initially enhanced 10-20% then depressed 15% 
                late in UT day. 
23 Dec    50    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Dec    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 21 December 
and is current for interval 22-23 December. Isolated shortwave 
fadeout activity expected. Expected depressed MUFs after local 
dawn did not eventuate as geomagnetic activity switched off when 
Bz swung northward. Depressed/degraded conditions are likely 
late 22-23 Dec following anticipated coronal mass ejection geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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