[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 203/154


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            200/152
COMMENT: Solar regions 223, 225 and 229 have formed a solar region 
cluster in the north-east quadrant of the solar disk. Magnetic 
compilexity has been reported in this culster, however as yet no 
significant flare activity has been observed. M class flares are 
possible. Solar wind speed moderately elevated at 500 km/sec, due to a 
coronal hole. Bz appears to be remaining northward so effects 
expected to be minimal. Another coronal hole is visible at the 
solar central meridian. The 27 day disturbance pattern for this 
hole is much stronger and disturbed conditions are likely around 
18 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3222 3223
      Darwin               8   3222 2223
      Townsville           8   3122 3223
      Learmonth            9   3222 3222
      Canberra             8   3222 2222
      Hobart              11   3331 3222
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--- 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec    15    Unsettled, chance active periods. 
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Dec    25    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 18-19 December. Bz has remained northward 
minimizing the effects of current elevated solar wind conditions 
from a coronal hole. A second coronal hole is expected to cause 
active to minor storm conditions on 18 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Dec      normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected 18 Dec due to coronal hole 
induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
17 Dec   100    near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Chance of isolated shortwave fadeout activity. Degraded 
conditions expected around 18 Dec due to anticapated coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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