[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 186/139


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flares possible. Solar wind 
speed rose from 380 to 600km/sec as the Earth entered high speed 
wind stream from coronal hole now in western solar hemisphere. 
Bz appears to be remaining northward so effects expected to be 
minimal. A larger south polar extension transequatorial coronal 
hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere, now just east 
of the central solar meridian. The 27 day disturbance pattern 
for this hole is much stronger and disturbed conditions are likely 
around 18 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 2333
      Darwin              11   2323 2333
      Townsville          11   1223 2343
      Learmonth           10   2223 2332
      Canberra            12   2223 2343
      Hobart              11   2323 2333
      Casey(Ant)          22   3--5 432-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              7   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec    14    Unsettled, chance active periods. 
16 Dec    15    Unsettled, chance active periods. 
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity may begin 
on 15 Dec due to coronal hole. Active conditions may not eventuate 
if Bz remains northward. The recurrent pattern for this hole 
is weak. A second coronal hole is expected to cause more significant 
activity starting around 18 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes 15 Dec due 
to mild coronal hole induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   120    10-15 depressed southern region/10-20% enhanced 
                northern region. 
16 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible southern region 15 Dec after 
local dawn. Chance of isolated shortwave fadeout activity. Stronger 
degradation expected around 18 Dec due to anticapated coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    71100 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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