[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: Minor C-class activity only was observed today, mainly 
from regions near the east limb. Active region 214 will rotate 
off the visible disk soon. Background X-ray flux levels have 
steadily increased over the past few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 2213
      Darwin               5   2112 2213
      Townsville           5   2112 2213
      Learmonth            5   2122 2213
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               4   2112 2113
      Casey(Ant)          15   4-34 222-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   2422 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has gradually reduced from 600 to less 
then 500 km/s over the UT day. Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been mostly northward over the UT day, which 
has moderated the effect of the present coronal hole wind stream. 
Coronal hole wind stream effects should continue to decline over 
the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed at low latitudes during local 
daylight hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Dec   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, 
      locally enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. High speed coronal 
hole wind stream effects will continue to decrease over the next 
few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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