[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            170/124            170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low. An M-class flare with associated 
type II radio sweep was reported at 2250UT. This was optically 
correlated with a bright flare in Region 213 on the east solar 
limb, and appears impulsive in nature. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2223 3333
      Darwin              11   3222 3333
      Townsville          10   2222 3333
      Learmonth           25   2234 55--
      Canberra             9   1222 3332
      Hobart              10   2232 3323
      Casey(Ant)          15   ---3 333-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 DEC : 
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3323 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly 
southward, with northward fluctuations throughout the UT day. 
Solar wind speed has decreased from previously elevated levels. 
There is the possibility of unsettled to active conditions within 
the next few days as an extensive coronal hole moves into geoeffictive 
solar longitude. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated depressions observed at high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
5 to 10% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
                10%. 
06 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
                10%. 
07 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
		10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted to slightly 
enhanced over the next few days. Isolated depressions possible 
at high latitudes in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
disturbance. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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