[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 146/100

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Two C-class 
flares were recorded. The only significant flare was a 
C8.3 from region 208 (N11E22). There is low possibility 
of M-flare from region 208. The solar wind speed is still 
enhanced and it remained between 460 km/s and 520 km/s 
for most of the UT day 03 December. The inter-planetary 
magnetic field fluctuated weakly between north and south 
directions (from +5nT to -5nT approximately) almost the 
whole day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Mostly quiet to 
unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 03 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3323 3222
      Darwin              11   3222 4223
      Townsville          14   --23 4232
      Learmonth            9   3223 --13
      Canberra            11   2323 32--
      Hobart              10   2323 3221
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--4 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 DEC : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            66   (Active)
      Hobart              70   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2333 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
05 Dec     8    Mostly quiet. 
06 Dec     6    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The solar wind speed is still enhanced. The 
geo-magnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to 
unsettled levels today, and it is expected to show a 
further decline during the next three days. The 
geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly
quiet levels tomorrow with some possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods and then gradually decrease to quiet 
levels during the following 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Isolated periods of minor MUF dpressions and 
degradedations in HF conditions may be observed on high 
latitude locations on 04 December (UT day). 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Dec   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec   112    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
                10%. 
05 Dec   115    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
                10%. 
06 Dec   117    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5 to 
                15%. 
COMMENT: The HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are 
expected to remain mostly normal during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  
Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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