[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/SF    1329UT  probable   all    European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 
30 Aug: 170/124

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity reached high level on UT day 
30 August 2002. Several C class and an X1.5 flares were 
observed during the UT day 30 August. The X1.5 flare was 
produced by the region 95(N07E65) at 1329UT. Region 95 
is stable whereas regions 87 (S08W13) and 85(S08W75) are 
declining. The inter- planetary magnetic field remained 
mildly but mostly southwards. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 420 to 350 km/s (approx). 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: 
Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2232 3221
      Townsville           7   2222 3212
      Learmonth            6   2221 2220
      Canberra             7   1222 3211
      Hobart               7   1222 3221
      Casey(Ant)          11   3232 32--
      Davis(Ant)          13   2343 22-1
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   3212 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next few days at almost all latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Aug   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with
      some periods of degradations and 
      depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 104

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug   135    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
01 Sep   135    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
02 Sep   135    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next three days across Australian regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K 
Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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