[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 6 09:57:18 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 2124UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Region 57(S07W53) is the most dominant region on
the disk now. This region produced two C-class flares
(C1.5 at 0331UT and C4.8 at 0517UT) on 05 August. An M1.0
flare observed at 2124UT appears to have come from the
North-Eastern limb and seems to have come from the
returning region 30 which is close to the North-East limb
on its way back. This region had produced several flares
(upto X-class) last time when it was on the front side of
the disk. Solar activity may be expected to go upto moderate
levels due to activity expected from the returning region 30
and region 57. A coronal hole is also taking geo-effective
position and it may strengthen the solar wind stream for a
few days- 07 August onwards. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 460 to 420 km/s (approx.)over the UT day
05 August. Bz remained mildly northward on 05 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 2321 0022
Darwin 6 2321 0122
Townsville 4 1321 0013
Learmonth 5 2321 0022
Canberra 3 2210 0022
Hobart 2 1210 0012
Casey(Ant) 6 2321 1122
Davis(Ant) 7 2231 113-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 4543 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
07 Aug 13 Quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
08 Aug 15 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
approximately 460 to 420 km/s over the UT day 05 August.
The interplanetary magnetic field remained mildy but
mostly northwards on 05August. The geo-magnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels
on 06 August. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to show
slight rise on 7 and 8 August as a coronal hole is taking
geo-effetive position. Isolated active periods may be
observed on 7 and 8 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
on high latitudes on 7-8 August. Periods of short wave fadeouts
may be expected during the next 3 days as a flaring region 30
is returning to the front of the disk.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with some periods of minor depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 115 near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 110 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
08 Aug 106 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed in the
southern Australian regions during 7-8 August as the geo-magnetic
activity is expected to show slight increase as a coronal hole
is taking geo-effective position. Short wave fadeouts may be
observed during the next 3 days as a flare producing region 30
is returning to the front side of the disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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