[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/-- 23/1907UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 3 August. Region 
39(S16W83) produced one X1 flare at 1909UT/03August. 
Several C-class flares were observed. Region 57(S08W57)
has shown some growth in size and complexity. Regions 
44(S24W88) and 39(S16W83) still have potential to 
produce isolated M-class flares although they are close 
to the limb now. Solar wind showed fluctuations almost 
the whole UT day on 03August. The interplanetary magnetic 
field remained predominantly northward. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 30 is due for 
return to the north-east limb around 5 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3243 2223
      Darwin              12   3243 2224
      Townsville          12   4143 2123
      Learmonth           13   4243 2223
      Canberra            12   3243 2223
      Hobart              10   2143 2223
      Casey(Ant)          10   3233 2223
      Davis(Ant)          15   4343 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             37   6642 3445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug    12    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
05 Aug    12    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
06 Aug    10    Mostly unsettled. 
COMMENT: The solar wind speed showed fluctuations almost 
the whole day on 03August. Bz remained predominantly 
northward. The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at unsettled levels on 4,5 August with possibility 
of going to active levels at times. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to come down to quiet to unsettled 
levels on 6 August. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed on high latitudes on 4-5 August. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug   120    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated 
                periods of minor depressions possible in Southern 
                Australian regions. 
05 Aug   120    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated 
                periods of minor depressions possible in Southern 
                Australian regions. 
06 Aug   124    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed 
in the southern Australian regions during 4-5 August as 
the geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at unsettled level with the possibility of going upto 
active levels at times. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.5E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    26500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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