[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SB    0153UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 209/160


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            200/152




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2111 2223
      Darwin               7   2112 3223
      Townsville           4   1111 2223
      Learmonth            4   1011 3---
      Canberra             6   2111 3221
      Hobart               0   ---- 0---
      Casey(Ant)           7   2--- ----
      Davis(Ant)          10   2222 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2212 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    16    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
02 Aug    16    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
03 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: A glancing effect of the CME observed on 29 July 
may cause a slight increase in the geo-magnetic activity 
on 1 and 2 August. The geomagnetic activity is expected 
to remain mostly at the unsettled level on 1 and 2 August 
with possibility of active periods. Bz has remained
predominantly northwards on 30 and 31 July. If Bz continues 
to remain northward on 1 and 2 August, the geo-magnetic 
activity may not rise upto the otherwise expected active 
levels. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to come down
to quiet to unsettled level by 3 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: An expected rise in geomagnetic activity on 1 and 
2 August, due to the possible glancing effect of the CME 
observed on 29 July, may cause mild degradations in the HF 
conditions on high latitudes on 1 and 2 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with
      periods of depressions. 


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug   115    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated 
                periods of minor depressions possible in Southern 
                Australian regions. 
02 Aug   115    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated 
                periods of minor depressions possible in Southern 
                Australian regions. 
03 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 
29 July and is current for interval 30 July to 1 August 
(SWFs) . Periods of minor degradations may be observed 
in the southern Australian regions on 1 and 2 August due 
to an expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity on 
these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060