[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 226/176

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            220/170            220/170
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated southward by 5nT over the UT day. Solar wind 
speed was around 400km/sec. Solar regions in the south-east and 
north-west quadrants of the solar disk are magnetically complex. 
In particular, the region in the south-east has shown rapid overnight 
growth. M class flaring remains probable. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2323 3223
      Townsville           9   2223 3224
      Learmonth           11   3223 3233
      Canberra             9   2223 3223
      Hobart               8   1323 2223
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 2123
      Davis(Ant)          14   2343 23-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             13   4222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
15 Apr    12    Unsettled 
16 Apr     7    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild CME induced activity has mostly failed to eventuate. 
Chance of active periods today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation remains possible today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Apr   160

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 11 April 
and is current for interval 13-14 April. Depressed MUFs now not 
expected. Enhanced conditions likely next few days. m 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    54700 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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