[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 206/157

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            205/156            205/156
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9866 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 4 Apr. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2333 2111
      Townsville           9   2333 211-
      Learmonth           15   333- ---3
      Canberra             9   2333 2112
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ---0
      Davis(Ant)           -   ---- ---0
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            81   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   3443 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Apr     6    Quiet 
05 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Very mild 27 day recurrent pattern for 08 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 Apr   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% .
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 733 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   229000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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