[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 27 09:28:52 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0258UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 283/237

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   280/233            275/227            275/227
COMMENT: Two solar regions in south west quadrant have M and 
X class flare potential. The ACE satellite data remains affected 
by proton event associated with the recent geoeffective X2 flare/CME. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 26 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   6344 1224
      Darwin              19   5344 1224
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           23   6344 1224
      Canberra            18   5344 0223
      Hobart              25   6444 0223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 SEP : 
      Darwin              70   (Active)
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           127   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             185   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   1221 1256     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Sep    12    Unsettled 
29 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for interval 26-27 September. Geomagnetic storm 
activity was confined to early in the UT, and rapidly declined 
to active levels following yesterdays impulse. Active periods 
possible on 29 Sep based on recurrence. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT and is 
in progress (declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Complete absorption contonues to be observed at high 
latitudes. PCA event appears to be declining. High latitude HF 
conditions may improve by very late in the UT day today. Other 
regions should have improving HF conditions due to rapid end 
of geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Sep   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Complete absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep   120    near predicted monthly values 
28 Sep   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Sep   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for interval 26-27 September. Ionosphere appears 
to have had a positive response to geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 282 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    98300 K  Bz:   4 nT
Note:Data incorrect as proton event saturated ACE detector.

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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