[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    1137UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 259/209

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   265/216            270/221            270/221




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 23 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   1344 4554
      Darwin              20   2334 4444
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           29   133- 5554
      Canberra            27   1344 4554
      Hobart              24   1344 4543
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 SEP : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2134 4321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    15    Unsettled with possible active and minor storm 
                periods. 
25 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
26 Sep    20    Unsettled with possible active and minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind around 0830UT 
with a weak sudden impulse in the geomagnetic field of 16nT for 
the Australian region observed at 0930UT. Isolated minor storm 
periods are possible over the next few days due to recent CME 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions have been observed for mid to 
high latitudes following mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Sep   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 15% to depressed 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep   120    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
26 Sep   130    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions have been observed since local 
dawn for Southern Australian and New Zealand regions following 
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity during local night. Conditions 
should return to near normal later in the local day. Fadeouts 
can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    33200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060