[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3411 1121
      Darwin               8   3411 1122
      Townsville           4   2310 0021
      Learmonth            8   3312 1131
      Canberra             8   3410 1121
      Hobart               7   3410 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2211 2242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep    12    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Sep    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
22 Sep    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A CME observed on 18 September is expected to impact 
the Earth on 21 September resulting in mostly unsettled to active 
conditions with possible minor storm periods. 
A weak impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0223UT 
on 19 Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be 
expected on daylight HF circuits. Slightly degraded conditions 
may be experienced for 21-22 September following the anticipated 
impact of the CME observed on 18 September. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Sep   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep   145    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
21 Sep   120    near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep   135    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 18 September 
and is current for interval 19-21 September (SWFs) . Enhanced 
MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Slightly degraded conditions may be experienced 
for 21-22 September following the anticipated impact of the CME 
observed on 18 September. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060