[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0112UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0708UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M4.5    2036UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 250/200

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            235/185            235/185
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rose from 300km/sec to 450km/sec later 
in the UT day, probably due to coronal hole efects.New solar 
region on south-east limb possibly produced M4 event. May be 
return of old region 9587. Large solar region 9608 now located 
in centre of solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2211 3323
      Darwin               8   2211 3323
      Townsville           5   3100 2223
      Learmonth            8   2111 3333
      Canberra             8   2211 3323
      Hobart               7   1211 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 SEP : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
13 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
14 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Weak recurrent activity may produce active periods over 
next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT:Mild degradation at high latitudes expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Sep   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40% during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
13 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 9 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September (SWFs) . Enhanced 
MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded conditions may be experienced during local 
night hours next few days, mid to high latitudes. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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