[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 222/172

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            230/180            230/180
COMMENT: M class flare activity expected, with possibility of 
isolated X class event from regions in north-west and and far 
south-east quadrants. Elevated background solar xray flux expected 
today. Solar wind data is currently at nominal levels, however 
ACE EPAM 47-65KeV proton data channel shows an increasing trend 
(possible precursor to mild geomagnetic activity), but is currently 
well below alert levels. A weak radio noise storm on the Culgoora 
Spectrograph appears to be intensifying this morning. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2112 1012
      Darwin               3   2112 1013
      Townsville           2   2111 0013
      Learmonth            3   2112 1012
      Canberra             3   1122 1012
      Hobart               3   1222 1002
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   3122 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Sep    16    active 
09 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Active periods expected on 8-9 Sep based on 27 day recurrence. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected 8-9Sep at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Sep   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be 
expected on daylight HF circuits. Southern region Aus/NZ may 
experience a mild degradation in HF conditions during local 
night hours 8-9 Sep. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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