[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1934UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.8    2018UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.7    2159UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 218/168

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Darwin               7   2322 1222
      Townsville           4   1112 1222
      Learmonth            8   2222 2322
      Canberra             9   2332 2222
      Hobart               8   2332 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 SEP : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            63   (Active)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   3234 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Sep   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Sep   107    near predicted monthly values 
07 Sep   112    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 4 September 
and is current for interval 4-6 September (SWFs) . 

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