[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/2N    1348UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 183/136

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   0001 1312
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           2   1010 1211
      Learmonth            1   0000 1212
      Canberra             4   0001 1322
      Hobart               3   0001 1312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 SEP : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2122 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Sep    12    Unsettled 
05 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Sep   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep   125    near predicted monthly values 
04 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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