[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1N    0836UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 226/176

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Oct             01 Nov             02 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            195/147




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 1212
      Darwin               4   2112 1203
      Learmonth            4   2112 1203
      Canberra             4   2122 1112
      Hobart               4   2121 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 OCT : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             16   3343 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Oct    12    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
02 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Oct   167

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to enhanced. 


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Oct   150    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    60200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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